Happy Opening Day! It’s time for another baseball season, so here’s a look at how I see things playing out this season.
AL East
- New York Yankees 98-64*
- Boston Red Sox 95-67*
- Toronto Blue Jays 87-75*
- Tampa Bay Rays 84-78
- Baltimore Orioles 57-105
We start off with one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, where two of last year’s three 100 win teams reside. Both the Yankees and Red Sox, barring something miraculous, will be back in the playoffs this year. The separator for me is still Boston’s bullpen which was dicey last year and is without its best relievers in Joe Kelly and, as of right now, Craig Kimbrel. I thought the Yankees were the better all-around team last year, and after improving their team greatly over the winter, are certainly better this year. Both teams are juggernauts, but the Yankees get the edge.
My surprise team is the Blue Jays, who I think get immediate help from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette when they get called up. These are two franchise-altering players who will hit in the middle of the lineup for years to come. I think they have enough pitching to sneak into the second Wild Card spot. This is my bold pick for this year.
The Rays are going to be solid and with a loaded farm system, should be contenders for years to come. I like Austin Meadows and think Avisail Garcia and Tommy Pham are going to thrive here. The pitching staff, Blake Snell and The Opener included, is good and should get a nice boost when Brent Honeywell is ready. The Orioles are not going to be good for a number of years and will probably be the worst team in baseball once again.
AL Central
- Cleveland Indians 88-74*
- Minnesota Twins 79-83
- Kansas City Royals 70-92
- Chicago White Sox 64-98
- Detroit Tigers 60-102
The Indians pretty much win this division by default. The pitching is just too good and while the offense, especially in the outfield, can be questioned, their pitching is going to carry the Tribe to a fourth straight AL Central title. The Twins had one of the better offseasons in baseball, adding offensive firepower in Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, Marwin Gonzalez, and Jonathan Schoop. This could be a better offense than Cleveland, but other than Jose Berrios, the Twins don’t have much certainty in their rotation. I offered my thought about the Royals here, but I don’t think this team is going to be THAT bad. Yes, losing Salvador Perez hurts. But Martin Maldonado and Cam Gallagher will get the job done while Meibrys Viloria continues to develop in the minors. They have some of the more dynamic players in the game in Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi, and they should be racking the stolen bases with Billy Hamilton and Terrance Gore. The starting pitching isn’t terrible with Brad Keller and Jake Junis leading the way. The Royals will need some young guys to emerge in the bullpen (Kyle Zimmer?) to be competitive. It’s not a good team, but I think its easily a third-place team in this division. The White Sox and Tigers are bad teams. Chicago’s rebuilding has not gone to plan so far, with Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito simply being bad players. Yes, it takes time for most young players to acclimate to Major League Baseball, but they have been nothing short of awful so far. With Eloy Jimenez locked up, he should be manning a corner outfield spot from Day One. He is vital to this rebuild and the White Sox certainly hope he is at least an above average major league hitter. Chicago still boasts a solid farm system but from what I’ve seen from their young major leaguers, it’s going to be a long year on the South Side. At 98 losses, the Tigers overachieved last season. They are a bad team.
AL West
- Houston Astros 99-63*
- Oakland Athletics 85-77
- Seattle Mariners 74-88
- Anaheim Angels 71-91
- Texas Rangers 65-97
The Astros are probably the best team in baseball on paper. They’re pretty darn good on the field as well. They’re getting Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve back healthy this year, and I love the Michael Brantley move. He is going to have a monster year in this lineup. The A’s are always a puzzling team, but they find a way most years to be competitive. The Mariners don’t look that bad right now, but chances are most of their veterans will be moved this summer as they continue their rebuild. The Angels may have locked up Mike Trout, but they have yet to field a respectable team around him. That’s not changing this year. The Rangers lost 95 games last year and have Lance Lynn, Drew Smyly and Shelby Miller in their rotation. They’re a bad team.
NL East
- Atlanta Braves 90-72*
- Washington Nationals 88-74*
- Philadelphia Phillies 85-77
- New York Mets 78-84
- Miami Marlins 60-102
You could make a case for any of four teams to win this division, but I’ll take the Braves to repeat. I think their young players get better with some experience under their belt, and we will start to see the real goods of their farm system come up this year – starting pitching. The Nationals got better this winter, and are one of the more complete teams in baseball. They will be a playoff team this year. The Phillies will be better, but I still worry about their pitching. They’ll fall short of the postseason. The Mets are the Mets, and that’s all that really needs to be said. Brodie Van Wagenen hopes to give that a new meaning, and I hope he does. But he acquired older players in what is obviously a young man’s game. We’ll see how it pans out, but I expect another 70 something win season. The Marlins are yikes.
NL Central
- Milwaukee Brewers 95-67*
- St. Louis Cardinals 91-71*
- Cincinnati Reds 84-78
- Chicago Cubs 83-79
- Pittsburgh Pirates 76-86
I love the Brewers. A stupid good lineup with a great bullpen. I think they patch the rotation together enough to win another division title. If it’s not them, it will be the Cardinals. Much improved team with getting one of the game’s premier players (and locking him up) in Paul Goldschmidt. This is a good all-around ballclub that will be back in the postseason. The Reds are much improved and I think find a way to be a third place team. Something about the Cubs doesn’t sit right with me, and I think they have a down year. The Pirates are not terrible, but easily the worst team in this very competitive division.
NL West
- Los Angeles Dodgers 92-70*
- Colorado Rockies 86-76
- Arizona Diamondbacks 75-87
- San Diego Padres 73-89
- San Francisco Giants 61-101
It may be a yawner, but it will be another year the Dodgers win the NL West. The Rockies have actually built a solid pitching staff and should contend again this year. The Diamondbacks are kind of in that “in the middle” spot between contending or rebuilding that nobody wants to be in. The Padres are going to be damn good pretty soon, but they are probably a year or two away. As most people (except the Giants, evidently) were probably able to foresee, they have officially pulled a Phillies from earlier in the decade and kept their players from prior championships too long. This is another case of yikes.
| American League
1. Astros 2. Yankees 3. Indians 4. Red Sox 5. Blue Jays |
National League
1. Brewers 2. Dodgers 3. Braves 4. Cardinals 5. Nationals |
ALWC: Red Sox over Blue Jays
NLWC: Cardinals over Nationals
ALDS: Astros over Red Sox, Yankees over Indians
NLDS: Brewers over Cardinals, Braves over Dodgers
ALCS: Astros over Yankees
NLCS: Braves over Brewers
World Series: Braves over Astros
I don’t really know why, but I just have a feeling it is going to be a huge year for the Braves. Ronald Acuna is a beast and I think becomes one of the top players in the game (if he isn’t already) and carries Atlanta through October. But what will really set the Braves apart is their starting pitching. I really think we will see some combination of Mike Soroka, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint, Bryse Wilson, Luiz Gohara, and Kolby Allard emerge and really solidify that rotation for years to come. It will be tough to take down the Astros, but something tells me the Braves will do it and win their first World Series since 1995.
Johnny Baseball 