We are obviously living in uncertain times, but we do know the MLB Draft will happen this year. The strange thing about this year is draft boards are mostly set with no more games being played, so there will probably not be much movement between now and whenever the draft happens.
Let’s have at it.
1. Detroit Tigers – Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State: The top of the draft seems to be Tork vs. Austin Martin. I think Tork’s bat is so good that it doesn’t matter that he’s a R/R first baseman. I think he’s better than Andrew Vaughn and has enough athleticism to potentially play a corner outfield spot or third base if you needed him to. But his bat is so good that I’d easily take him ahead of Martin at No. 1.
2. Baltimore Orioles – Austin Martin, INF/OF, Vanderbilt: What sticks out the most about Martin is that he could play anywhere you need him to play except catcher. (He’s never played first base, but I’m sure he could if you wanted him to, but why would you want him to?) Some folks think he’s the best pure hitter in the draft, which I don’t know that I’m buying. I hear a lot of Dansby Swanson here, and I want more impact than that this high in the draft. Regardless of my opinion, he will be off the board in the top two picks.
3. Miami Marlins – Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M: Entering the spring as the No. 2 pitcher in the class, Lacy dominated in four starts and evidently surpassed the pitcher who entered the year as the top arm. It’s hard to make evaluations when players played so little this spring, but it appears Lacy took advantage and is widely believed to be the top arm off the board.
4. Kansas City Royals – Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia: If you told me a month ago that Hancock would not be off the board with one of the first two picks, I would have said you were crazy. The right-hander, who has drawn comps to 2018 No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize, has the complete four-pitch arsenal that are all plus pitches at best. He wasn’t great this year and pitched particularly poorly in his first start (while Lacy was dominant all spring), but I really don’t think too much stock should be put into player evaluations this season. Emerson Hancock, Daniel Lynch, Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, and Kris Bubic with Jonathan Bowlan and Austin Cox as depth? Yes, please. I will note it would not surprise me if Garrett Mitchell is the pick here because he is the definition of a Dayton Moore position player profile, while Nick Gonzales will also be considered.
5. Toronto Blue Jays – Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State: All Gonzales has ever done is rake no matter where he’s been. And while New Mexico State is a hitter’s paradise, he was the MVP on the Cape Cod League last summer against the top college players in the county with wood bats. You hear the Keston Hiura comp here a lot because he’s mostly just a bat and will be no more than serviceable at second base. But I think he is really going to hit, though the struggles of New Mexico product DJ Peterson make me pause for a second.
6. Seattle Mariners – Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas: Maybe a surprise to see Kjerstad this high, but I have a feeling someone in the top 10 is going to really buy into his bat. Teams cover power, and he has plenty of it that I think he goes ahead of the fellow college outfielder to be seen here shortly. An outfield of Kjerstad, Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez will get Mariners fans excited for the next decade.
7. Pittsburgh Pirates – Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA: If you’re looking for the potential five-tool superstar player in this class, look no further than Mitchell. He’s taken big strides offensively since arriving at UCLA and has started to tap into his plus raw power in games, but teams do still have concerns about how much power he will hit for. He’s at least a 70-grade runner who can impact the game on the bases and in center field, where he’ll be able to stick long term. He’s the rare college player with upside, though teams could be leery of his Type 1 diabetes and how that could affect him over 162 games. The Pirates need some star power in their system, and Mitchell could be that guy.
8. San Diego Padres – Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota: Meyer entered the spring as a bottom half first-round prospect, but exploded with a fastball-slider combination that has been considered the best in the entire draft. He draws Sonny Gray comps because of his size and could get to the bigs quickly out of the bullpen. I think San Diego is on the verge of a huge breakout and Meyer could have a tremendous impact out of the pen before moving to the rotation to join MacKenzie Gore, Chris Paddack, and Luis Patino as one of baseball’s most talented rotations.
9. Colorado Rockies – Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio HS (Texas): The Rockies need to develop their own pitching, and velocity plays at any altitude. Kelly is the top hard-throwing high school prospect in the draft and a perfect fit for Colorado.
10. Anaheim Angels – Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville: Speaking of perfect fits, the Angels need pitching, and they need it now. Detmers can get there quickly and settle in as a mid-rotation starter.
11. Chicago White Sox – Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek HS (Florida): Am I really giving the White Sox the best high school bat in the draft? He’s certainly the best player on the board here. I love this kid’s swing, and see a combination of Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger. He can certainly go higher than this, and I kind of hope he does.
12. Cincinnati Reds – Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State: The team that believes in Bailey’s bat will take him in the first round. Here’s betting that Great American Ballpark helps his cause.
13. San Francisco Giants – Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS (Oregon): The Giants have a track record of developing high school pitching, and land arguably the top prep arm in the class.
14. Texas Rangers – Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny HS (Pennsylvania): If Hendrick hits, he could be the best high school hitter in the draft. The Rangers could use that kind of star power in their system.
15. Philadelphia Phillies – Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East HS (Pennsylvania): Make it back-to-back Pennsylvania prep players off the board as Philadelphia stays in their own backyard for their selection. Bitsko is right up there with Abel and Kelley in the top tier of high school pitchers in this draft, and he has youth on his side after reclassifying from the Class of 2021 to this year.
16. Chicago Cubs – Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel HS (Illinois): I love it when a team drafts a player out of their backyard and while Howard is more on the South Side than the North Side, this will do just fine. The former Little League World Series star is the top shortstop prospect in this class and should be a solid player for a long time, with potential for more depending on the development of his offensive game.
17. Boston Red Sox – Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee: Crochet didn’t pitch much this spring with injury concerns, but he displayed terrific stuff and could be a steal at this stage of the draft if his health checks out and the stuff comes back.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks – Robert Hassell, OF, Independence HS (Tennessee): A lot of folks consider Hassell to have the best present hit tool in the high school class. Put him in a system with Corbin Carroll, Alec Thomas, and Khristian Robinson? That’s going to be one scary outfield.
19. New York Mets – Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Harvard-Westlake HS (California): The Lord knows the Mets need a center fielder and while you don’t draft for need, they scoop up the best defensive outfielder in the draft in Minnesota Twins’ owner/manager Billy Heywood’s brother Crow-Armstrong. He was one of the bigger names heading into last summer, where he didn’t quite meet expectations offensively. He got off to a strong start this spring and alleviated some hit tool concerns, but the question now is how much offensive impact is he going to have?
20. Milwaukee Brewers – Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke: Perhaps nobody had more helium in a handful of starts this spring than Jarvis, who should now be safely in the first round after throwing a perfect game and nearly throwing another in four starts. The Brewers need arms and fast. He’s already 22 and with the emphasis teams put on age, they may want to move him quickly.
21. St. Louis Cardinals – Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock HS (CA): While it remains to be seen if he can remain behind the plate, Soderstrom has emerged as one of the top high school bats in the class.
22. Washington Nationals – Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma: The Nationals have plenty of history taking high upside arms with medical concerns.
23. Cleveland Indians – Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State: Cleveland stays local and takes Dingler, who is a lock to stay behind the plate and could be an all-star if he hits enough.
24. Tampa Bay Rays – Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina: A lot of college pitching should come off the board in this neck of the woods. After posting a 5.59 ERA his first two college seasons, Mlodzinski broke out on the Cape last summer and Tampa knows how to get the most out of its pitching.
25. Atlanta Braves – Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia: Atlanta loves to draft out of its own backyard, and Wilcox was one of the top prep arms in 2018 to make it to college and has some of the best stuff in the class, though there are some starter vs. reliever questions that he couldn’t answer this spring as a draft-eligible sophomore.
26. Oakland Athletics – Daniel Cabrera, OF, LSU: Cabrera is a solid bet to be a solid contributor at the major league level. He’s one of the more consistent offensive performers in this year’s college crop and shows average tools across the board, with an above-average hit tool and arm that should profile well in an outfield corner.
27. Minnesota Twins – Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor: There are a number of college shortstops that will start to come off the board towards the end of the first round. One of them is Loftin, who has a high floor as a utilityman and could be an everyday player at multiple positions if his bat develops.
28. New York Yankees – Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami: One of two Hurricane right-handers that will come off the board early, McMahon offers a nice combination of athleticism, stuff, feel for pitching and command.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers – J.T. Ginn, RHP, Mississippi State: The Dodgers selected Ginn 30th overall out of high school in 2018 but was unable to sign him. He ended up following through to his Mississippi State commitment and was SEC freshman of the year before requiring Tommy John surgery after one appearance this spring. We know the team is familiar with the player, so perhaps they like him enough with a year of success in the SEC under his belt to take him regardless of the operation.
CBA
30. Baltimore Orioles – Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville: After going with Martin in the first round, there’s a lot of college pitching to choose from here. With a 6’5” frame and a power fastball/slider combination, Miller became the 1A to Reid Detmers at Louisville before the season ended.
31. Pittsburgh Pirates – Jordan Walker, 3B, Decatur HS (GA): Walker has some of the best raw power in the draft, and should fit the prototypical third base profile if he hits enough. Two high-upside bats for Pittsburgh.
32. Kansas City Royals – Casey Martin, SS, Arkansas: If you’re debating Hancock vs. Gonzales at No. 4, I think you can get a second baseman here. You’re not going to find a pitcher like Hancock here. A plus athlete with 80 speed, a questionable hit tool and power potential who should stay in the middle of the diamond? Martin has Royals written all over him. Kansas City took Brady McConnell last year, and they select this year’s version here.
33. Arizona Diamondbacks – Austin Wells, C, Arizona: Wells is going to be drafted for his bat, and while he might not be a long-term catcher, he should get a chance to prove he can stick there in pro ball. A local college bat makes sense for an Arizona system with a lot of younger bats.
34. San Diego Padres – Alika Williams, SS, Arizona State: Williams played high school ball near San Diego and is a solid bet to remain at short at the next level.
35. Colorado Rockies – Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami: Colorado needs to develop power arms, and Cecconi has one.
36. Cleveland Indians – Carson Montgomery, RHP, Windermere HS (Florida): Montgomery should be on Cleveland’s radar as one of the youngest high school arms in the class.
37. Tampa Bay Rays – Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn: Burns has had durability concerns throughout his amateur career and is physically mature at 6’0”, but Tampa could get a nice value here if they can keep him healthy. He has drawn Sonny Gray comps thanks to his fastball/slider combination.
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