The best day of the year is finally here! This is one of the deeper drafts in quite a while, so these next two nights are sure to be exciting.
Let’s get to it.
1. Detroit Tigers – Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State: Tork is the best player in the draft and it’s not even close. Asa Lacy seems to be plan B.
Previous pick: Torkelson
2. Baltimore Orioles – Austin Martin, INF/OF, Vanderbilt: Mike Elias can throw everything out of whack here if he wants to. If the Orioles take the best player available, they’d go with Martin or Asa Lacy. If they want to cut a deal and spend big later, they’d consider Nick Gonzales, Zac Veen, and perhaps Heston Kjerstad. Elias has been known to cut deals (Correa/McCullers in 2012), but pairing Martin with Adley Rutschman may be too tempting to pass up. I’d personally cut a deal with Gonzales and spend big at 30 and 39. (I also think Gonzales is a better hitter than Martin and both will wind up at second base.)
Previous pick: Martin
3. Miami Marlins – Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M: Miami will take the remaining of the “top three” with this pick, though I still believe Emerson Hancock is the second-best player in this draft.
Previous pick: Lacy
4. Kansas City Royals – Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA: Surprise! This is where things really start to get fun. Kansas City can go a number of ways here. Zac Veen, Nick Gonzales, Emerson Hancock, and Max Meyer are all options and there’s also a chance Baltimore goes under slot at No. 2 and Austin Martin or Asa Lacy are still available.
But Garrett Mitchell screams “Dayton Moore player” to me. 80 runner, plus defender that will stay in center field with a good arm. Mitchell is the type of “speed, defense, and athleticism” player the Royals had when they were good, and Moore wants to build that kind of team again. There are some concerns about his power, but I really don’t care about that. He’s going to spray line drives all over Kauffman Stadium and rack up extra-base hits with his speed. That plays in this stadium.
I don’t know how the Royals feel about his diabetes but he had no problems playing every day at UCLA. As long as they are comfortable with that, this is the definition of a Royals pick, and I don’t think Moore passes him up. There’s chatter about an underslot deal with Veen and spend big at 32 and 41, but could they underslot Mitchell here? I don’t know what his asking price is, but I’d have to believe it’s a possibility given the volatility of his draft status. He could go here, or 20 picks later than this. (If Mitchell is not the pick, I’d go with Veen here.)
Previous pick: Emerson Hancock
5. Toronto Blue Jays – Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota: Meyer entered the spring as a bottom half first-round prospect, but exploded with a fastball-slider combination that has been considered the best in the entire draft. He draws Sonny Gray comps because of his size and could get to the bigs quickly out of the bullpen. He’s got big helium and is a lock to go in the top 10 picks and I think sneaks into the top 5. I think Toronto prefers him over Hancock of the remaining college arms.
Previous pick: Nick Gonzales
6. Seattle Mariners – Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia: Congratulations to the Mariners on selecting the best pitcher and second-best player in this draft. Four pitch mix, mid-upper 90s fastball, plus slider and changeup, plus command. The analytics drive me nuts and some teams are backing off on Hancock because he doesn’t “miss enough bats” and “have elite spin rates” and whatever other nonsense teams look at these days. Both Lacy and Meyer have relatively high relief risk in my eyes. Give me the dude who has the stuff, arsenal, command, delivery, and body to be a frontline arm. Hancock is that guy.
Previous pick: Heston Kjerstad
7. Pittsburgh Pirates – Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek HS (Florida): The Pirates are faced with an interesting choice here. Do they go with the high school bat or a college bat like Gonzales or Kjerstad? They need upside in their system, and Veen will give them that. (If Kansas City takes Veen, I’d go with Gonzales here.)
Previous pick: Garrett Mitchell
8. San Diego Padres – Robert Hassell, OF, Independence HS (Tennessee): One of two stars from the 2014 Little League World Series that will go in the first round of this draft. The Padres love prep players, and a lot of folks consider Hassell to have the best present hit tool in the high school class. Max Meyer could be in play here if he’s still available.
Previous pick: Max Meyer
9. Colorado Rockies – Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State: All Gonzales has ever done is rake, no matter where he’s been. And while New Mexico State is a hitter’s paradise, he was the MVP on the Cape Cod League last summer against the top college players in the county with wood bats. You hear the Keston Hiura comp here a lot because he’s mostly just a bat and will be no more than serviceable at second base. But I think he is really going to hit, though the struggles of New Mexico product DJ Peterson make me pause for a second, and perhaps that’s why he’s still on the board here. Could you imagine him raking in Coors Field? That’s fun. (If Kansas City takes Veen, I’d go with Kjerstad here.)
Previous pick: Jared Kelley
10. Anaheim Angels – Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville: This is a perfect fit. The Angels need pitching, and they need it now. Detmers can get there quickly and settle in as a mid-rotation starter.
Previous pick: Detmers
11. Chicago White Sox – Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas: I would not at all be surprised if Kjerstad is off the board by now. But if Kansas City takes Mitchell, there’s going to be a ripple effect. Chicago would be thrilled to take Kjerstad here, who has more in-game power than Mitchell and will mash in that ballpark. Another close to ready bat in a system that has a ton of them. (If Kansas City takes Veen, I’d go with Mitchell here.)
Previous pick: Zac Veen
12. Cincinnati Reds – Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny HS (Pennsylvania): If Hendrick hits, he could be the best high school hitter in the draft. The Reds have been linked to him.
Previous pick: Patrick Bailey
13. San Francisco Giants – Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS (Oregon): The Giants have a track record of developing high school pitching, and land arguably the top prep arm in the class.
Previous pick: Abel
14. Texas Rangers – Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio HS (Texas): The Rangers need pitching. And upside. Kelley gives them both. And he’s in-state. Makes a lot of sense.
Previous pick: Austin Hendrick
15. Philadelphia Phillies – Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East HS (Pennsylvania): Make it three straight high school arms as Philadelphia stays in their own backyard and takes Bitsko, who is right up there with Abel and Kelley in the top tier of high school pitchers in this draft. He has youth on his side after reclassifying from the Class of 2021 to this year.
Previous pick: Bitsko
16. Chicago Cubs – Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel HS (Illinois): If my last two picks were any indication, I love it when a team drafts a player out of their backyard and while Howard is more on the South Side than the North Side, this will do just fine. The former Little League World Series star is the top shortstop prospect in this class and should be a solid player for a long time, with potential for more depending on the development of his offensive game.
Previous pick: Howard
17. Boston Red Sox – Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee: Crochet didn’t pitch much this spring with injury concerns, but he displayed terrific stuff and could be a steal at this stage of the draft if his health checks out and the stuff returns.
Previous pick: Crochet
18. Arizona Diamondbacks – Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock HS (CA): While it remains to be seen if he can remain behind the plate, Soderstrom has emerged as one of the top high school bats in the class. Another high upside bat for Arizona.
Previous pick: Robert Hassell
19. New York Mets – Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Harvard-Westlake HS (California): The Lord knows the Mets need a center fielder and while you don’t draft for need, they scoop up the best defensive outfielder in the draft in Minnesota Twins’ owner/manager Billy Heywood’s brother Crow-Armstrong. He was one of the bigger names heading into last summer, where he didn’t quite meet expectations offensively. He got off to a strong start this spring and he’s going to hit, but the question is how much power is he going to have?
Previous pick: Crow-Armstrong
20. Milwaukee Brewers – Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke: Perhaps nobody had more helium in a handful of starts this spring than Jarvis, who should now be safely in the first round after throwing a perfect game and nearly throwing another in four starts. The Brewers need arms and fast. He’s already 22 and with the emphasis teams put on age, they may want to move him quickly.
Previous pick: Jarvis
21. St. Louis Cardinals – Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State: Bailey can go higher than this, it all depends on what teams think of his offensive upside. The Cardinals know how to get the most out of their players.
Previous pick: Tyler Soderstrom
22. Washington Nationals – Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma: The Nationals have plenty of history taking high upside arms with medical concerns.
Previous pick: Cavalli
23. Cleveland Indians – Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State: Cleveland stays local and takes Dingler, who is a lock to stay behind the plate and could be an all-star if he hits enough.
Previous pick: Dingler
24. Tampa Bay Rays – Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech: Beeter made a strong impression on scouts this spring, showing increased velocity and command in longer stints as a starter. He’s an analytics darling because of the way he tunnels his pitches, and that fits the bill for Tampa.
Previous pick: Carmen Mlodzinski
25. Atlanta Braves – Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia: Atlanta loves to draft out of its own backyard, and Wilcox was one of the top prep arms in 2018 to make it to college and has some of the best stuff in the class, though there are some starter vs. reliever questions that he couldn’t answer this spring as a draft-eligible sophomore.
Previous pick: Wilcox
26. Oakland Athletics – Daniel Cabrera, OF, LSU: Cabrera is a solid bet to be a solid contributor at the major league level. He’s one of the more consistent offensive performers in this year’s college crop and shows average tools across the board, with an above-average hit tool and arm that should profile well in an outfield corner.
Previous pick: Cabrera
27. Minnesota Twins – Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville: With a 6’5” frame and a power fastball/slider combination, Miller became the 1A to Reid Detmers at Louisville before the season ended.
Previous pick: Nick Loftin
28. New York Yankees – Austin Wells, C, Arizona: Wells is going to be drafted for his bat, and while he might not be a long-term catcher, he should get a chance to prove he can stick there in pro ball. And his left-handed power will work nicely in the Bronx.
Previous pick: Chris McMahon
29. Los Angeles Dodgers – J.T. Ginn, RHP, Mississippi State: The Dodgers selected Ginn 30th overall out of high school in 2018 but was unable to sign him. He ended up following through to his Mississippi State commitment and was SEC freshman of the year before requiring Tommy John surgery after one appearance this spring. We know the team is familiar with the player, so perhaps they like him enough with a year of success in the SEC under his belt to take him regardless of the operation.
Previous pick: Ginn
CBA
30. Baltimore Orioles – Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami: One of two Hurricane right-handers that will come off the board early, McMahon offers a nice combination of athleticism, stuff, feel for pitching and command.
Previous pick: Bobby Miller
31. Pittsburgh Pirates – Jordan Walker, 3B, Decatur HS (GA): Walker has some of the best raw power in the draft, and should fit the prototypical third base profile if he hits enough. Two potential impact bats for Pittsburgh.
Previous pick: Walker
32. Kansas City Royals – Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami: After taking the bat early, Kansas City adds to its stable of college pitchers here with Cecconi, a rare college arm with upside.
Previous pick: Casey Martin
33. Arizona Diamondbacks – Alika Williams, SS, Arizona State: Arizona stays local and takes Williams, who could advance quickly and is a solid bet to remain at short at the next level.
Previous pick: Austin Wells
34. San Diego Padres – Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor: Loftin has a high floor as a utilityman and could be an everyday player at multiple positions if his bat develops.
Previous pick: Alika Williams
35. Colorado Rockies – Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina: After going with the bat early, the Rockies opt for a college pitcher here in Mlodzinski, who broke out on the Cape last summer and has the power arm you need to develop in Colorado.
Previous pick: Slade Cecconi
36. Cleveland Indians – Carson Montgomery, RHP, Windermere HS (Florida): Montgomery should be on Cleveland’s radar as one of the youngest high school arms in the class.
Previous pick: Montgomery
37. Tampa Bay Rays – Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn: Burns has had durability concerns throughout his amateur career and is physically mature at 6’0”, but Tampa could get a nice value here if they can keep him healthy. He has drawn Sonny Gray comps thanks to his fastball/slider combination.
Previous pick: Burns
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